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Sickness absence duration
The results show that the proportion of sick spells ending in
conjunction with the time limits at 90 and 180 days increased up until
2011. After that, the proportion has decreased. The decrease concerns
both men and women and individuals with different diagnoses. Also,
since 2011, the Sickness Insurance Agency has, to a lesser extent,
performed the legislated eligibility checks at the time limits of 90
and 180 days. In 2011, more than 70 percent of the 90-day eligibility
checks were performed on time. In 2014, the corresponding figure
was less than 50 percent. A similar development can be seen for the
180-day eligibility check.
Although the drop in eligibility checks performed on time strongly
correlates over time with the drop of sick spells ending near the time
limits, the analyses do not allow any causal interpretation. However,
research from both the sickness insurance and the unemployment
insurance suggest that time limits and monitoring of benefit
entitlement shortens benefit duration and increases the return to work.
Therefore, it is very likely that the drop in performed eligibility
checks in recent years has contributed to the longer sick spells and the
higher sickness absence.
Long-term effects of the time limits
In the second part of the report, the long-term individual effects from
the time limits at 90 and 180 days are analysed. It is not obvious that
short-term effects, in terms of an increased return to work, should
translate into long-term effects regarding, for instance, health and
sickness absence. In Sweden, where the compensation level for those
on sick leave is high and where the degree of monitoring before
the introduction of the time limits was low, it is likely that most
individuals had returned to work at some point even without the time
limits. This makes it less likely for long-term effects to arise.
The analysis is based on the same population and analytical approach
as in Hägglund (2012), who takes advantage of the semi-experimental
situation arising when the time limits were introduced on 1 July 2008.
Then, those already on sick leave were exempted from the time limits
until 1 January 2009. Using a difference-in-difference technique
comparing individuals starting a sick-leave episode in the last week
of June and the first week of July, in 2008 and 2007 respectively, the