22(27)
The results indicate that we still have a significant reform effect of
approximately 4%: the size limit seems to negatively affect household
housing consumption, i.e., the risk of
moving
into overcrowded conditions
increases by a significant (the risk seems to increase after the 1997 reform
for the households in the treatment group) 4% for each thousand SEK
decrease in the housing allowance, as compared with the control group,
which was not exposed to this reform. The result is also very stable when
introducing new covariates (only the full model is presented here).
All models are also estimated with Cox partial likelihood (Cox, 1972) using
different methods of handling the “ties,” i.e., the fact that with grouped
duration data we do not know the exact time when households “fail,” so we
do not know the sequence of household failures. The estimates are directly
comparable to those produced using the discrete hazards models presented
above.
Finally, we will summarize the estimates obtained using the individual
characteristics as well as the housing an
d
labor market characteristics. The
results suggest that the probability of moving into overcrowded conditions
declines with age and is greater for single parents with many children and
for households in which the housing expense represents a larger part of the
disposable income in May 1996. Finally, households living in municipalities
characterized by high unemployment and housing markets in which new
production is not profitable also seem to have a great likelihood of moving
into overcrowded conditions.
The results from the analysis of the placebo reform indicate no effect on
overcrowding one year after the reform. This increases the credibility of the
results presented here.
